Wednesday, July 6, 2011

An experiment unveils the timing of the aft port boats

I didn't know whether to cheer or to cringe.

Having completed my research into the timing of the first lifeboats to leave the sinking Titanic, plus the last boats and half of the middle boats I was looking at how to link my results into an unbroken timeline when I realized I had made a huge mistake.

The only saving grace was that it was the same mistake made by virtually all Titanic researchers---assuming First Officer Murdoch had crossed the ship to load Lifeboat No. 10 after he finished launching Lifeboat No. 15, the last of the rear starboard boats.

It dawned on me that we had all violated a basic rule of research which can be summarized by the aphorism 'water flows downhill.' In other words, don't overlook the obvious.

The obvious: Murdoch was in charge of loading lifeboats on the starboard side of the Titanic; Chief Officer Wilde was in charge of the port boats.

There was no way that Murdoch would cross into Wilde's territory. After launching starboard Boat No. 15, Murdoch would know there were still two starboard boats to load, Collapsibles C and A. They was his responsibility.

Wilde was responsible for the port boats, and he did not need Murdoch's help. As Murdoch lowered No. 15, across the deck four officers were at work loading and lowering the aft port boats---CO Wilde, Second Officer Lightoller, Fourth Officer Lowe, and Sixth Officer Moody.

And yet, there were witnesses who saw Murdoch loading No. 10.

How to reconcile Murdoch's undisputed presence at a port lifeboat?

I decided to search for the answer with a thought experiment. It's a research tactic used in fields as diverse as physics and philosophy. In essence it starts with the proposition "what if", followed by a logical extension of circumstances that would flow from the "if".

In this case, what if Murdoch had stayed on the starboard side of the Titanic, what would we expect to see, and is there any support for the results?

After lowering No. 15, Murdoch would go forward to Collapsible C, the lifeboat that was positioned to go into the davits after Lifeboat No. 1 was launched. What would he find there? He would find that Collapsible C was not ready to be loaded; there were no sailors around to get C cleared and into the davits. As early as the loading of No. 1 the deck there was empty of both sailors and passengers.

What would Murdoch do then?

Talk to the Captain.

If there's one thing clear about the sinking of the Titanic, its that all major decisions had to be cleared by the Captain. Lightoller went to get the Captain's okay to start loading passengers. When Chief Officer Wilde ordered Quartermaster Rowe to stop firing rockets, Rowe went to the Captain to doublecheck whether he should obey.

The Captain was usually found on the bridge or possibly near the wireless room on the port side of the ship. What would he tell Murdoch? Of that we have (indirect) evidence.

'Forget Collapsible C for the moment; start loading No. 2.'

For that's exactly where witnesses put Murdoch, loading Lifeboat No. 2 which was already in the davits and ready to go.

Now we can see why Murdoch was on the port side of the ship.

I next applied the thought experiment to Chief Officer Wilde.

Wilde, as noted, was one of four ship's officers at the port rear of the Titanic. Sixth Officer Moody was at No.16, Fifth Officer Lowe was at No. 14 and Second Officer Lightoller was at No. 12. Given that Lowe was actually in No. 14 and leaving with it, it stands to reason that CO Wilde would take the job of supervising the lowering of that boat.

Once free from No. 14, Wilde would, by the thought experiment, proceed to the front of the ship. After all, there were twice as many boats left on his side of the ship than on Murdoch's starboard side---No. 2, No. 4 and Collapsibles B and A.

Wilde would pass right by No. l0 which still wasn't in the davits. But there were two other officers in the aft area and none up front.

Upon reaching the bow of the Titanic, what would Wilde see?

Why, Murdoch at No.2.

You can imagine the conversation.

Murdoch would tell Wilde about Collapsible C and how he came to be loading No. 2.
What would Wilde do? Talk to the Captain, of course.

We know what Wilde then did, but he would have needed to clear it with Capt. Smith first.

Wilde crossed to starboard and, at 1:25 a.m., ordered the men who were firing the rockets to stop. He told them to get Collapsible C ready to load. Of this we have the evidence of quartermasters George Rowe and Arthur Bright.

And then? The evidence is that Wilde went back to port, his side of the ship, to take over from Murdoch. The Chief Officer wasn't needed at Collapsible C while the men cleared the boat and got it into the davits. He would load No. 2. while Murdoch, in turn, was ordered to see about No. 10. Steward John Hardy described for the Senate Inquiry seeing Murdoch go aft.

Mr. Hardy
"I had great respect and great regard for Officer Murdoch and I was walking along the deck forward with him and he said "I believe she is gone, Hardy," and that's the only time I thought she might sink---when he said that."

Senator Smith
"How long was that before your boat was launched?

Mr. Hardy
A. "It was a good half hour, I should say, sir."

Senator Smith
Where did he go then, do you know?

Mr. Hardy
He was walking toward the afterpart of the deck. That was before all the boats had gone.

Senator Smith
He superintended the loading of the boats?

Mr. Hardy
Yes, sir; he went to see if a particular boat was properly manned.

The thought experiment demonstrates why Murdoch was at Boat No. 10 and how he got there---by following the proper channels of command.

The movements of Officers Wilde and Murdoch have an added benefit. They help approximate the timing of the launches of the aft port boats.

But to do so I had to break one of my cardinal rules. I have always argued that its foolish to try to reconstruct what happened on the Titanic down to an exact minute almost 100 years ago. But this is exactly what I was about to do.

If Wilde was at Collapsible C at 1:25 a.m., he was at No. 2 at least a minute earlier, 1:24. Two minutes to get from the aft boats to the bow of the ship, means he left No. 14 at 1:22 at the latest.

It also means he left before No. 14 was lowered.

Lead fireman Thomas Threlfall, who escaped the sinking ship in No. 14, told a reporter he was ordered to abandon his post in Boiler Room #4 at 1:20 a.m. (The Bridgewater Mercury, May 1912). If he went straight up to the boat deck, he could have arrived at No. 14 within two minutes, using the British Inquiry Commissioner's estimate of 10 seconds to cover each deck.

But No. 14 is known to have been loaded under extremely disorderly circumstances. Men were pushing past the crew and jumping into the lifeboat, threatening to overturn it even in the davits. Fifth Officer Harold Lowe fired his gun three times to ward off anyone thinking of jumping into the boat as it was lowered. Wilde wouldn't have abandoned the lifeboat if the disorder had grown to the point where shots had to be fired to deter jumpers. So we can assume he left before the press of male passengers grew unmanageble.

So we must conclude No. 14 went down after 1:22. Pinpointing a time would take more work.

Starting again at 1:25 a.m., when Wilde gave the order to stop firing rockets and load Collapsible C, you can track First Officer Murdoch backwards to when he left the aft starboard boats.

If, as speculated, Wilde went to Collapsible C after finding Murdoch at No.2, you can say Murdoch was at No.2 at least a minute earlier (the minimum time for Wilde to talk to the Captain and cross the deck), i.e. 1:24 a.m. Still working backwards, it would take Murdoch at the very least 3 minutes to get to No. 2 from No. 15 (two minutes to get to Collapsible C, another minute to cross the deck and speak with the Captain.) That would take you to 1:21 a.m. Assuming he stayed with No. 15 until it was safely launched, is it possible to determine when No. 15 was lowered?

I have been using a rule of thumb of five minutes for the lowering of lifeboats, but that needs to be changed, not to conform with some predetermined theory, but with the facts of the sinking.

No. 13 went off at about 1:15 a.m. The lowering did not go well. The boat found itself being lowered into the path of a plume of water spewing out the side of the Titanic.

Dr. Washington Dodge provided this exciting account in a speech delivered to the Commonwealth Club San Francisco, May 11, 1912:

"The boat in which I embarked was rapidly lowered, and as it approached the water I observed, as I looked over the edge of the boat, that the bow, near which I was seated, was being lowered directly into an enormous stream of water, three or four feet in diameter, which was being thrown with great force from the side of the vessel. This was the water thrown out by the condenser pumps. Had our boat been lowered into the same it would have been swamped in an instant. The loud cries which were raised by the occupants of the boat, caused those who were sixty or seventy feet above us to cease lowering our boat."

Crewmen testifying at the official inquiries said they planned to use oars to push No. 13 away from the Titanic and out of the path of the condenser discharge, but it turned out that desperate act wasn't needed. The Titanic sank deeper into the sea, positioning the discharge underwater.

No. 13 was lowered by the davits to the ocean. But their drama didn't end there. A current created by the condenser discharge pushed No. 13 back directly under the path of Lifeboat No. 15 which by then was coming down directly on top of them. The crew managed to cut away the ropes holding them to the ship only seconds before No. 15 would have swamped them.

The point, though, is that No. 15 would not have taken 5 minutes (the usual rule of thumb) to lower. It started from A deck and the Titanic sank at least one deck by the time it was launched. Say by the time No. 15 was launched, it was taking lifeboats only 3 minutes to reach the ocean. This would put the launch of No. 15 at about 1:18 a.m. (1:21 as per above minus 3 minutes).

We know Sixth Officer Moody was at No. 13 as it was being loaded on A deck. And nobody from the surviving crew members recalled seeing him, or any officer, at No.15 when it was lowered to A deck. So it's looking likely that Moody was ordered to port when No. 13 was launched (about 1:15 a.m.). If he stayed as late as the launch of No. 15 (1:18 a.m.), he would get to the aft port boats a minute later, 1:19 a.m.

The evidence at the inquiries was that Moody and Lowe arrived at No. 16 and No. 14 respectively when both boats were almost finished loading. After conferring briefly as to who would go off in a lifeboat and who would stay, Moody supervised the lowering of No. 16. By this scenario, that could have started as early as 1:19 a.m.

Three minutes later, you have 1:22, the earliest time we deduced that CO Wilde could have left No. 14 and still arrived at Collapsible C by 1:25 a.m. Though only a thought experiment, it suggests that Moody could have launched No. 16, then taken over from Wilde at No. 14. Although Lowe, the more senior officer, was leaving in the boat, another officer would be needed to supervise the men at the davits to make sure they lowered the boat evenly without tipping it.

What about Lifeboat No. 12?

No. 12 was loaded and presumably lowered by Second Officer Charles Lightoller. But for unknown reasons, Lightoller never provided any details of his time at the aft port boats. Although he testified at both the Senate and British inquiries, and wrote a book in which he discussed his role during the sinking of the Titanic at length, he only spoke about what he saw and did regarding the port forward lifeboats.

Nevertheless, we can use the same techniques to uncover the timing of No. 12.

If Wilde was at Collapsible C at 1:25, ordering a stop to the rockets and the clearing of C, he would have returned to Lifeboat No. 2 about a minute later,1:26. This gives a hint of the time Murdoch would have received orders to go to No. 10 to see it loaded and lowered.

If he left immediately after Wilde showed up to supervise the loading of No.2, then Murdoch would have reached No. 10 about 1:28 (using the two-minute yardstick to travel the 400 feet from bow to stern on the boat deck).

Able seaman Frank Evans told the Senate Inquiry he assisted Murdoch from the start at No. 10. He had just finished lowering No. 12, he said.

"I lowered that boat, sir, and she went away from the ship. I then went next to No. 10, sir, to that boat, and the chief officer, Mr. Murdoch, was standing there, and I lowered the boat with the assistance of a steward."

If Murdoch was at No. 10 at 1:28 a.m., and Evans just finished lowering No. 12, then, accepting three-minutes to lower a boat by that point, No. 12 was launched at about 1:25.

Or maybe it was a few minutes later, and Murdoch had to wait until No. 12 reached the water.

That's the danger of trying to time things Titanic to the minute. There are too many variables without reliable witnesses.

However, if you stop trying to see the trees and look at the forest, you can use such an exercise to grasp the bigger picture. In the space of about 12 to 15 minutes, the three aft port boats were launched.

They had been loaded concurrently, starting about 1 a.m. Less than 20 minutes later, the first (No. 16) was being lowered.

Sixth Officer Moody takes on a bigger role than previously believed. He likely supervised the launches of both No. 16 and No. 14, and possible even No. 12, depending on when Lightoller left to go forward and get started loading No. 4.

That's how Titanic's Secrets Unfold.

Monday, July 4, 2011

Stokers provide the key to the time the middle lifeboats were launched.

The timing of the middle boats has always been the Mount Everest of challenges for Titanic researchers.

It encompasses fully half the lifeboats on the ship, lifeboats leaving from multiple decks, lifeboats both fore and aft, port and starboard on the stricken vessel, with few reliable time references to serve as guides.

It seemed an insurmountable problem.

And then one day 18 months ago, the solution appeared serendipitously. It had been hiding in plain sight all along. It just took another year and a half to get the kinks out.

The key lay with the stokers and greasers, and the times they abandoned the boiler rooms to make their way to the lifeboats up top.

The answer of the riddle of the middle boats starts with 28-year-old Frederick Barrett, lead stoker in Boiler Room 6.

When the Titanic hit the iceberg, Boiler Room 6 quickly flooded. Its occupants fled. Some, like Barrett, wound up in the adjacent Boiler Room 5. He testified at the British inquiry to the dramatic efforts to keep the boilers functioning. Eventually, however, ocean water began gushing into Boiler Room 5 and the engineers relieved the men of their duty and sent them topside to save themselves.

Barrett testified he left the boiler room at 1:10 a.m. (April 15, 1912). He headed for the lifeboats, stopping on A deck where he came upon Boat No. 13, loaded and ready to launch. He jumped in, followed, he said, by three other men just before the lifeboat was lowered.

Senate Inquiry:
Q. Was there any objection to your getting in the boat? - A. No, sir.
Q. Where was it loaded? - A. At A deck. It was lowered to A deck. They were very full up when we got in.
Q. Was there an officer there at the time? - A. No, sir.
Q. You got in and took charge of the boat and remained in charge until you got chilled? - A. Yes.

British Wreck Commissioner's Inquiry
2156. After you got up to her did any more people get in?
- Yes, there were about three more got in after I got in, and the order was given from the boat deck, "Let no more in that boat; the falls will break."

It would take only seconds for four grown men to jump into a lifeboat. So, it's fair to say that, for research purposes, we can assume that the time he arrived at No. 13 is about equal to the minute the boat was lowered.

But what time was it? Barrett couldn't say.

2148. (The Solicitor-General.) Are you able to tell us the time when you got to No. 13?

- No. As a Rule a stoker never carries a watch when he is at work.

The time it took Barrett to get to No. 13 is crucial. Was there any way to approximate it, I asked myself.

The British Wreck Commissioner's Inquiry explored the movements of Titanic's crew in greater detail than the Senate Inquiry, and two witnesses provided invaluable evidence.

A discussion of the time it took to reach the upper decks was part of the questioning of able seaman William Lucas.

Lucas said he was in his quarters on C deck when the collision happened. He heard the quartermaster's call for All Hands and went up 3 decks to the boat deck.

1762. How long did it take you to get from your quarters to the boat deck?
- I should say about five minutes.

The commissioner was incredulous. Five minutes!? He admonished the witness, referencing his own guided tour of the Titanic's sister ship, the Olympic.

1767. In ordinary circumstances, or what I conceive to be ordinary circumstances, do you mean to tell me it takes five minutes to get from your quarters in the fore part of the ship up to the boat deck? Just think about it?

- It took me close on that. I never knew my way properly upon the boat deck.
1768. Do you mean to say that you were groping about in places that you knew nothing about?
- Yes.
1769. Had you never been up before? - Yes, I had been on the boat deck every watch.
1770. And had not you then learnt your way?
- Yes, I had learnt my way.
1771. Then having learnt your way how long did it take you to go your way to get to the boat deck? Five minutes seems a very long time. I should have said half-a-minute?
- It is rather long, my Lord.
The Commissioner:
I came up those stairs in the "Olympic" yesterday. It is quite true I was shown the way but five minutes seems an extraordinary length of time.

Half-a-minute by the Commissioner's time-sense? That averaged to climbing each deck in 10 seconds.

Putting Barrett on that brisk pace would mean he would trek the eight decks from the boiler rooms to A deck in roughly a minute and a half, allowing for some slowing down at the end of a long stair climb. Assuming some fatigue after a hard shift of stoking coal, you can argue the trip to the boats would take two minutes or more. And if you add time to find a lifebelt, it becomes just a guessing game.

Was there any way to eliminate or reduce the guesswork?

The experience of greaser Frederick Scott would have been closer to Barrett's. He worked in an adjacent boiler room until 1:20, he told the British Inquiry. Before going up to the lifeboats, he and the others with him were sent to the steerage quarters at the rear of the ship where they were each given a lifebelt.

5765. How did you get from the third class sleeping apartments to the boat deck?
- I went to the third class compartments and up the staircase.
5766. Was that the most direct way?
- Yes.
5767. Had you any difficulty in getting up?
- No.
5768. None at all?
- No.
5769. Did all the other members of the crew follow you?
- Yes.
5770. The 40 firemen?
- Yes.
5774. How long were you occupied in getting these lifebelts?
- Not long.
5775. It is at any rate an appreciable distance from the sleeping apartments of the third class passengers to the deck, is it not?
- I should say we would get up in five minutes in a case like that.

Note that Scott's answer is almost identical to Lucas. Five minutes. Given the discrepancy in distance travelled by each man, its obvious they are using the term as shorthand to mean "a short time, not long" rather than an actual measure.

So let's take them at their word. Five minutes to reach the boat deck doesn't look like such an outrageous estimate. Remember, its foolhardy to claim accuracy down to the exact minute after almost 100 years. Broad estimates, say in five minute segments, allow for minor mistakes to average themselves out over time.

With that, the pieces began to fall into place.

If Barrett left boiler room No. 5 at 1:10 a.m., and took about five minutes to climb to A deck (possibly stopping along the way to get a lifebelt), he would arrive at Lifeboat No. 13 at 1:15 a.m.

No. 13 was lowered seconds later, and had the most terrifying trip down of all the lifeboats. That will be examined in a subsequent segment. At this point, its enough to say we have the first reasonable approximation of the launch of one of the middle boats: No. 13 at 1:15 a.m.

Philip Mock, first-cabin passenger, was saved in Lifeboat No. 11 which preceeded No. 13. He wrote Archibald Gracie a letter (cited in Gracie's book The Truth About the Titanic) wherein he said (p.253, Winocour):

"I at no time saw any panic and not much confusion. I can positively assert this as I was near every boat lowered on the starboard side up to the time No. 11 was lowered. With the exception of some stokers who pushed their way into boat No. 3 and No. 5, I saw no man or woman force entry into a lifeboat. One of these was No. 13 going down, before we touched the water."

His observation was corroborated by bathroom steward Charles D. Mackay at the British Inquiry:

British Wreck Commissioner's Inquiry
Day 9
10842. When No. 11 was lowered, was No 13 still on the davits?
- No; No. 13 was being lowered when we were on the water's edge.
10843. About the same time?
- About the same time.

Using a rough estimate of five minutes to lower a lifeboat, that would have No. 11 launched five minutes before No. 13 or roughly 1:10 a.m.

I wasn't finished with Lifeboat No. 13.

Fireman George Beauchamp also found himself in Boiler Room No. 5 with Barrett after the collision with the iceberg. But he was dismissed earlier than Barrett. He went all the way to the boat deck where, as fate would have it, No. 13 was loading. He assisted with the passengers, then he was ordered in just before it was lowered to A deck to continue loading there.

So if we an determine what time he left Boiler Room Five we can deduce how long it took to load No. 13, and by extension, each lifeboat.

Barrett told the British Inquiry he ordered most of the men in Boiler Room Five to leave about 15 minutes before he was ordered out himself.

2017. And you got some 15 men to help about it?
- Yes.
2018. And did they draw the fires?
- Yes.
2019. How long do you think it would take them to draw the fires?
- It would take them 20 minutes.
2020. And after they had drawn the fires what happened to them?
- I sent them up again.
2021. They went up again?
- Yes.
2022. Did you stay below?
- Yes.
2023. With Mr. Harvey?
- Yes.
2024. Then what was the next order?
- He asked me to lift the manhole plate off.
2030. And what happened then?
- Mr. Shepherd was walking across in a hurry to do something and then fell down the hole and broke his leg.
2031. He did not notice the manhole plate had been lifted?
- No.
2032. He broke his leg?
- Yes.
2036. And then you attended to Mr. Shepherd as best you could. Did you stay there after that?
- Just about a quarter of an hour after that.
2037. And during that quarter of an hour did No. 5 keep free from water?
- Yes.
2038. Then tell us what happened at the end of a quarter of an hour?
- A rush of water came through the pass - the forward end
2112. Now then, Barrett, when all that was over, you told us you came up out of No. 5 when the rush came in?
- Yes.
2113. Where did you go to?
- Up the escape into the main alleyway.

If Barrett left the boiler room at 1:10, then Beauchamp was ordered out at 12:55 a.m. Five minutes to reach the boat deck and he was loading about 1 a.m. If the boat left at 1:15 a.m., it took 15 minutes to load.

Using 15 minutes as a rule-of-thumb for loading, it should be possible to work backwards and discover the times the other starboard lifeboats left the ship. So I thought.

While the loading of No. 13 overlapped wih the loading of No. 11, that wasn't the case with earlier boats. In other words, No. 9 left before No. 11 loaded and No. 1 before No.9 loaded.

By that token, you could assume that if No. 11 left at 1:10 a.m., it started loading at 12:55 a.m. If loading started as soon as No. 9 was lowered, it put the lowering time for No. 9 at 12:55 a.m. with loading at 12:40 a.m.

It was apparent this was wrong.

In my earlier research on the lowering of the early boats, I determined that the earliest Boat No. 6 could have been launched was 12:40 a.m.

No. 6 left shortly before No. 1 which left before No. 9. Anything that puts the launch of No. 9 at 12:40 has to be wrong. So it was back to the drawing board, or in this case Lifeboat No. 13.

It took a few days to realize what was wrong and why. The evidence indicates that the loading of No. 13 took about 15 minutes. But did something interrupt the process?

An examination of the accounts from survivors who escaped in Boat 13 and Boat 15 provided the answer.

Seaman Robert Hopkins (New York Times, April 23, 1912)
"At the saloon deck, he said, the boat was stopped in order to take aboard some more passengers. There was some disorder at this deck, he said, especially when a number of Poles, Hungarians and Italians tried to get aboard."

Irish passenger Bertha Mulvihill: (Providence Journal, April 20, 1912)
"Some of the Italian men from way down in the steerage were screaming and fighting to get into the lifeboats. Captain Smith stood at the head of the passasgeway. He had a gun in his hand."
"Boys," he said. "You've got to do your duty here. It's the women and children first, and I'll shoot the first man who jumps into a boat."

Eugene Daly (interviewed by Dr. Frank Blackmarr aboard the Carpathia)
"Finally some of the women and children were let up, but, as you know, we had quite a number of hot-headed Italians and other peoples who got crazy and made for the stairs. These men tried to rush the stairway, pushing and crowding and pulling women down, some of them with weapons in their hands."

There it was. A rush on the boat witnessed by crew and passengers alike. What if 15 minutes was actually 10 minutes of loading and five minutes of restoring order?

Replace the 15 minutes to load with 10 and we have No. 11 launched at 1 a.m., No. 9 at 12:50 a.m. and No. 1 at 12:40 a.m. For the second time I knew this scenario was impossible.

Second officer Charles Lightoller wrote in his memoirs (Titanic And Other Ships) that as soon as he saw No.6 off, he was approached by Chief Office Wilde who asked him "did I know where the firearms were".

The officers' guns were the responsibility of the First Officer, wrote Lightoller, but Murdoch, who had been bumped from Chief Officer to First on the Titanic, didn't know where they were kept and Lightoller did.

"Yes, I know where they are. Come along and I'll get them for you," and into the First Officer's cabin we went--- the Chief, Murdoch, the Captain and myself---where I hauled them out, still in all their pristine newness and grease."

He distributed the weapons, and was handed one, with extra ammunition, by Wilde. "The whole incident had not taken three minutes..." he wrote.

So if No. 6 went off at about 12:40 a.m., what time did the loading of the lifeboats resume? Movie director Jim Cameron has estimated the time it took to cross from port to starboard based on his model of the Titanic. "It takes thirty seconds to walk through the bridge and get across to the other side. It takes about a minute if you walk by the compass platform."

It appears then that it took about five minutes to get the officers armed and back at work. (Three minutes to distribute the guns, a minute there and back) Murdoch, in that case, would begin loading No.1 at around 12:45 a.m.

Assuming 10 minutes to load as a rule-of-thumb, No. 1 would go off at 12:55. No. 9 loads from 12:55 a.m. to 1:05 a.m. No. 11 loads from 1:05 a.m. to 1:15. And again, the simulation fails as we know for certain that No. 11 preceeded No. 13 which left at 1:15 a.m.

What was wrong this time? It was easy to see.

No. 1 might have started loading at 12:45 a.m., but it didn't take 10 minutes to finish.

Lifeboat No. 1 carried only five passengers and 8 crewmen. Five minutes was more than enough time for everyone to get aboard. And you didn't need two officers to lower an emergency boat carrying only 13 people. Fifth Officer Herbert Lowe told the Senate Inquiry he stayed with the boat until it reached the water. But there was no need for First Officer Murdoch to stick around, not with half the lifeboats still to load at the rear of the ship.

The top deck was 400 feet long. It would take roughly two minutes to walk from the forward boats to the rear boats, meaning that if Murdoch left at about 12:50 a.m., the loading of No. 9 started about 12:52. Ten minutes later it was being launched.
No. 9 went off at about 1:02. Rounding up or down to the nearest five minutes to recognize the implausibility of determining time down to a minute or two after 100 years, has No. 9 off the Titanic at about 1:00.

This time, the template works like a charm.

No. 11 leaves 10 minutes later--at about 1:10.

And we're back where we began with No. 13, which was loaded concurrently with No.11, leaves the ship at 1:15 a.m.

One loose thread remains. Lifeboat No. 8.

Lightoller distributed the guns starting about 12:40 a.m. He and Chief Officer Wilde would have been loading No. 8 five minutes later. With the rule of thumb at 10 minutes to load, No. 8 would have launched at approximately 12:55 a.m.

And there it is, the launch times of five of the middle boats:

No. 1 12:50
No. 8 12:55
No. 9 1:00
No. 11 1:10
No. 13 1:15

Next: Correcting a mistake with Lifeboat No. 10.